Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.020118 0.022817 0.025766 0.029232 0.033199 0.037602 0.042869
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015491 0.019051 0.023289 0.028720 0.035519 0.043782 0.054630
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.013046 0.016927 0.021815 0.028455 0.037289 0.048707 0.064693
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011332 0.015355 0.020660 0.028219 0.038790 0.053169 0.074410
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010343 0.014555 0.020338 0.028928 0.041485 0.059359 0.087063
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009253 0.013456 0.019432 0.028640 0.042635 0.063372 0.096916
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008690 0.013033 0.019412 0.029587 0.045629 0.070324 0.111934
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007737 0.011916 0.018233 0.028616 0.045524 0.072439 0.119455
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.007040 0.011117 0.017448 0.028152 0.046125 0.075660 0.129064
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006308 0.010190 0.016367 0.027085 0.045589 0.076904 0.135350
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006078 0.010051 0.016535 0.028092 0.048634 0.084480 0.153655
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005858 0.009905 0.016669 0.029041 0.051652 0.092286 0.173267
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005600 0.009682 0.016669 0.029780 0.054420 0.100030 0.193934
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005184 0.009145 0.016076 0.029392 0.055072 0.103928 0.207597
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004827 0.008682 0.015571 0.029111 0.055877 0.108166 0.222425
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004512 0.008267 0.015115 0.028869 0.056722 0.112547 0.238062
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004352 0.008128 0.015157 0.029596 0.059567 0.121256 0.264121
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004079 0.007749 0.014709 0.029301 0.060274 0.125579 0.280953
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003976 0.007691 0.014877 0.030271 0.063734 0.136130 0.313427
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003664 0.007195 0.014137 0.029277 0.062851 0.137065 0.323285
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003433 0.006844 0.013662 0.028801 0.063056 0.140445 0.339478
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003160 0.006386 0.012932 0.027708 0.061759 0.140236 0.346683
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003109 0.006387 0.013156 0.028739 0.065449 0.152101 0.386348